Hominid Views

Time for a Senate race update. Wait, actually, the update is way overdue. There were no state head-to-head polls of any type today, so what the heck….

The previous analysis, way back on August 26th, showed control of the Senate firmly in the hands of the Democrats with an expected 56.5 seats to the Republican’s expected 43.5 seats. There have, of course, been numerous Senate state head-to-head polls released since then. The bottom line is, the Democrats improve their position very slightly.

Today after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats still are guaranteed to control the Senate. Now they have an expected 56.8 seats to the Republican’s 43.2 seats. That’s a gain of almost 1/3 of a seat.

Compared to the previous analysis, Democrats lose some prospects in Alaska (from 100% to 69%), Colorado (from 99% to 72%), and Minnesota (from 15% to 8%). But they gain some in Missouri (from 2% to 7%), North Carolina (from 17% to 86%) and Oregon (from 1% to 16%).

Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:^*

Notice that this is the first time the magic 60 seats shows any probability mass at all on this graph. It is a very small mass, but there it is.

This graphs shows the probability of at least each number of seats controlled by the Democrats:^*

• 100000 simulations: Democrats control the Senate 100.0%, Republicans control the Senate 0.0%.
• Average ( SE) seats for Democrats: 56.8 ( 1.0)
• Average (SE) seats for Republicans: 43.2 ( 1.0)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Democrats: 57 (55, 59)
• Median (95% CI) seats for Republicans: 43 (41, 45)

Expected outcomes from the simulations:

• Democratic seats w/no election: 37
• Independent seats w/no election: two
• Republican seats w/no election: 26
• Contested Democratic seats likely to remain Democratic: 12
• Contested Republican seats likely to remain Republican: 17
• Contested Democratic seats likely to switch: none
• Contested Republican seats likely to switch: six

This table shows the number of Senate seats controlled for different criteria for the probability of winning a state:^* Safe>0.9999, Strong>90%, Leans>60%, Weak>50%

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

^@ Current party in office
^& An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).
^*Analyses assume that independent Senators Sanders and Lieberman continue to caucus with the Democrats.

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other elections can be found from this page.

Welcome to the new propaganda. It’s not your Father’s usual campaign white lies anymore!

A simple lie on a complex issue is nearly impossible do debunk without losing your audience.

This is how it works: The lie is simple and succinct, delivered in a “sound bite”. The issue, however, is complex, and debunking the lie takes far more than a sound bite.

The result is that the propaganda sound bite resonates with American voters, and we vote in favor of doing ourselves in.

Take for example, “The Surge worked”.

Sound bite.

Barack Obama is far more aligned with Gen. David Petraeus’ view–than is any Republican, including John McCain.

But Obama has given-up defending the fact that he was correct about “The Surge” not working… Because it’s simply not possible to deliver that fact in a sound bite.

Here’s the shortest way I can debunk the obvious “Surge is working” lie–and I’ll do it using only John McCain and Gen. Petraeus as sources:

First, Gen. Petraeus himself, often credited as the architect of “The Surge”, indicated from the beginning that military action would not provide the solution needed in Iraq.

Barack Obama was aligned with Gen. Petraeus; John McCain was not.

Second, John McCain declared in April that the Surge was working before it even started (hence, no need for a Surge?).

At the time of McCain’s statement, we had average levels of troops in Iraq. We know now, of course, that McCain was incorrect at the time.

Have I lost you yet? We’re already well-beyond “sound bite” levels…

Third, “The Surge” was not a “surge”, but rather a standard troop redeployment not unlike previous troop redeployments. Gen. Petraeus would have redeployed the troops anyway. Calling it a “Surge” was nothing more than a political marketing term. “The Surge” in 2007 was only 8,000 greater (an extra 5%) than the 2005 “surge”. In fact, the “surge” of 2004 was nearly twice the increase in proportion to “The Surge” of 2007 that is so much the rage among those goose-stepping in line with John McCain (click for full-sized image):

Fourth, according to Gen. Petraeus, it was the shift in Sunni allegiance away from Al Qaeda that struck fear into Al Qaeda over their ability to continue attacking.

Still with me? I’m practically making myself fall asleep! ZZZzzzzzzzzz…

Fifth, according to Gen. Petraeus, the diplomacy that resulted in the Sunnis changing allegiance to support the US/Iraq against Al Qaeda was not part of “The Surge” plan.

And Finally: Gen. Petraeus advocates Diplomacy, not force, when it comes to neighboring Iran.

The Sunnis, not “The Surge” is what worked so well. Militarily, “The Surge” did as expected–as it had always done in the past. It put a temporary cap on violence.

Just try to get that past Bill O’Reilly’s sour-puss, dismissive waving, knee stomping discussion interruption whenever anyone says something cogent. The one way to do this is to out-asshole Bill O’Reilly, but then that makes you an unelectable asshole.

The first rule of politics is not to sweat the small stuff. Bill O’Reilly is small stuff, and Barack Obama correctly negotiated around that asshole. Good job! Now let’s see McCain agree to an interview with Keith Olberman.

Barack Obama was as correct about “The Surge” not working as anyone is about the effectiveness of a table missing a leg. You don’t build a table missing a leg and just hope for the outside chance that a leg appears. Not when American lives are in the balance!

Last Thursday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 290 to 248 electoral votes. If an election had been held then, we would expect Obama to have a 86% chance of beating McCain, based only on state head-to-head polls.

Today there was one new poll in Alaska thrown into the mix. Consequently, there is little change in the outcomes.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 86,533 times (including the 923 ties), and McCain wins 13,467 times. Obama receives (on average) 291 to McCain’s 247 electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held now, Obama should have an 86.5% probability of winning and McCain, a 13.5% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

• 100000 simulations: Obama wins 85.6%, McCain wins 13.5%.
• Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 291.3 (22.9)
• Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 246.7 (22.9)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 291 (242, 338)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 247 (200, 296)

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.

^* An older poll was used (i.e. no recent polls exist).

Details of the methods are given in the FAQ.

The most recent analysis in this and other match-ups can be found from this page.

State polling has been pathetic over the last week. There is only one new poll today, but it covers two races….

Presidential Poll:

• Ivan-Moore poll in Alaska

Alaska gives Sen. John McCain a 54% to 35% lead over Sen. Barack Obama. This is the second poll taken since Gov. Sarah Palin was added to the G.O.P. ticket. A slightly newer American Viewpoint poll has the race at 57% to 33%. Before the Palin selection, an early August poll gave McCain a +6% lead. The three polls taken before that (all in the second half of July) were all single digit leads for Obama.

Senate Poll:

• Ivan-Moore poll in Alaska

Alaska’s Sen. Ted Stevens (R) is behind challenger Mark Begich 46% to 49%. Still, this is a big improvement for Stevens who was down 39% to 56% earlier in August by the same pollster. Likewise, in late July, Stevens was down 35.3% to 56.0%. Stevens has the momentum, but still has an up-hill battle to keep his seat in the light of his indictment.

There are no gubernatorial poll for today.

I’ll be back soon with a fresh Monte Carlo analysis.

Toobin: McCain’s Speech was ‘Shockingly Bad’ (via Jed Report).

Ann Telnaes: Lame lame duck .

Palin’s Political Plight:

• Headzup: Lies to nowhere.
• Peggy on the Palin Pick
• CNN fact checks Palin’s speech (via Jed Report).
• Jon with restoring honor and dignity to the White House:
• Going after community organizers
• Even FAUX News cannot believe it
• Palin movie trailer.
• Red State Update: Assessin’ Palin.
• ABC News reports on Troopergate (via Jed Report).
• Maddow: Palintology.
• McCain seems to like his new running mate.
• McCain panicks
• Stephen with That’s the ticket (via OneGoodMove).
• Sarah Palin’s shocking speech
• 236: Who is Sarah Palin?
• Mark Fiore: Fun with John and Sarah
• Jon looks at the pundits on Palin (via Horsesass).
• Olbermann and Fineman on Sarah’s time out (via Jed Report).

Headzup: FBI investigation guidelines.

Gov. Chris Gregoire meets the bloggers (via Horsesass).

Red State Update: Fred Speaks.

FAUX News uses the same old attacks.

ONN: Old grizzled candidate stealing McCain’s votes.

Goldy and his friends do a little Podcasting Liberally at Seattle’s chapter of Drinking Liberally.

Jon and Sam with Shitstorm (via OneGoodMove).

Todd Palin…is that you???

The arrest of Amy Goodman.

Headzup: Petraes disagrees with McCain.

Obama’s Outtakes:

• Even some: Wingnuts liked it.
• Obama entertains Bill-0 the clown.
• Why Barack Obama doesn’t talk much about McCain (via Jed Report).

Dino Rossi is like George Bush:

DNC Scenes:

• DNC footage you didn’t see
• 236: The DNC in one minute.

Ann Telnaes: Bread and circuses.

Maddow: are McCain and Palin serial liars?

Ridge: “John Bush is very much his own man.

Red State Update: Toby Keith’s surprise.

The Walter Reed Middle School caper.

Jon on RNC day 2 (via OneGoodMove).

Joe Biden responds to the RNC (via Jed Report).

Ann Telnaes: Knowledge and experience.

Jon with some Palin humor.

Last week’s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.

Yesterday’s analysis showed Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 290 to 248 electoral votes. In a hypothetical election held yesterday, Obama would be expected to win with a 86.9% probability.

Today there were new polls released in North Dakota, Alaska, and Indiana. Overall, little changes.

After 100,000 simulated elections, Obama wins 86,010 times (including the 1,104 ties), and McCain wins 13,990 times. Obama still receives (on average) 290 to McCain’s 248 electoral votes. Obama has a 86.0% probability of winning and McCain has a 14.0% probability of winning.

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

• 100000 simulations: Obama wins 84.9%, McCain wins 14.0%.
• Average ( SE) EC votes for Obama: 290.3 (21.1)
• Average (SE) EC votes for McCain: 247.7 (21.1)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 290 (248, 335)
• Median (95% CI) EC votes for McCain: 248 (203, 290)

This table shows the electoral vote total for different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

This table summarizes the results by state. Click on the poll number to see the individual polls included for a state.